So what is the upcoming year going to look like in the automotive service & parts industry?
Hmm, interesting question. On the one hand, new vehicle sales are very likely going to continue to trend down on average to the tune of well under 16 million vehicles. But maybe that means used vehicle sales will make up the difference? Well, the short answer is no. The systemic pressure on new car sales is unfortunately industry or rather, economy-wide and will affect all big-ticket spending. So, alas, used car sales will be down as well.
Ok, strike one against, but that is vehicle sales, not necessarily service. True, when we tighten the collective belt, we typically shelf any ideas of getting that new ride and at the same time try to care a bit more for our current steeds, which might lead to a bit of an uptick in general service & maintenance.
The rub is, all vehicles are still improving in both the quality and reliability departments while stretching the typical service interval to longer periods. Thanks to improvements in technology, namely synthetic oils and even cleaner operating engines, 7,500 miles has become the new 3,000 miles in the world of oil changes with some manufacturers going even double that distance between lubes. This effectively cuts basic service shop traffic by half or more as the average owner can often get away with less than two (mileage-driven) visits to the shop per year.
That one ends up being a wash (cancel each other out, not the owner brings the car in for detailing) at best.
So what other factors may enter the equation and push visits one way or another? Well, there is still a strong movement toward armchair environmentalism where the proverbial seed has been planted in the typical consumer's ear at least bringing the green question to some part of the subconscious. That could theoretically spark a few brakes jobs or transmission flushes, but won't likely have a major push on the needle.
And that is about it I'm afraid. We won't likely see any ground-breaking developments on the Right to Repair initiative, nor will we see much difference in the current trend of small independent shops that hang up their wrenches in favor of twinkies. Could be better, but could be worse.
If you are the proprietor of said type of store, or even a factory-backed franchise one, let's keep those creative ideas for driving traffic coming.
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